Vice President Kamala Harris' hopes of running up the margins among younger voters in the 2024 election did not come to fruition, according to exit polling.
Donald Trump's victory over Harris was partly due to Trump making significant gains and inroads on his 2020 numbers in a number of voter blocs, including among Gen Z voters—those aged 18 to 27—and first-time voters.
Voters under age 30 typically vote in fewer numbers than other age demographics and have historically favored Democratic candidates. Exit polling results from this year suggest this voting bloc did not provide the same cushion for Democrats as it has in previous elections.
Preliminary data from the Associated Press' VoteCast polling, based on more than 120,000 voters, showed that around half of voters under 30 supported Harris in the 2024 election, down from roughly 6 in 10 who backed President Joe Biden in 2020. By comparison, more than 40 percent of young voters backed Trump this year, a jump from about one third in 2020.
Newsweek reached out to the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment.
Similar improvements for Trump among younger voters were cited in CNN's 2024 exit polling of more than 22,000 voters. In the last election, Biden beat Trump in this demographic by 24 points. This year, Harris' lead over Trump among those aged 18 to 29 was 11 points, a 13-point dip in the key demographic.
David B. Cohen, a professor of political science at the University of Akron in Ohio, said the dip in support among Gen Z voters from 2020 is a "huge concern" for Democrats.
"Young voters compose a crucial part of the Democratic base and if that is eroding, where do they make up for that? The declining level of enthusiasm for Harris among young voters absolutely played a part in her electoral defeat," Cohen told Newsweek.
"Going forward, Democrats will have to figure out how to bring young voters back to the fold—particularly young men—if they want to be competitive nationally."
The figures also do not reflect the enthusiasm and expectation among Harris and other Democrats that younger voters would propel Harris to victory.
"Across the country, we are seeing young people turn out in droves, forming long lines on college campuses in battleground states," Justin Meszler, programming director for Voters of Tomorrow campaign group, told The Hill on Tuesday. "Although no one should have to wait hours to vote, these lines signal what we have known for months: Gen Z will elect Kamala Harris and defeat Donald Trump today."
Younger voters are also more likely to be first-time voters and Harris appealed directly to this group in a campaign ad released Tuesday.
The ad featured Harris watching video messages from first-time voters on a cellphone while encouraging others to go to the ballot boxes on Election Day.
"I love Gen Z," Harris said. "Thank you all for voting. You know your power—your power through your voice, through your vote.
"And for anyone who hasn't voted yet, I'm telling you you're going to enjoy the process. It'll make you feel really good about just reminding you this is your country, this is your future, and you have a right to weigh in on where we're headed. So get out and vote."
CNN's exit poll suggested that Trump was the preferred candidate over Harris among first-time voters in this election, 54 percent to 45 percent. That 9-point cushion for Trump marked a massive shift of more than 40 points from 2020 when the CNN exit poll showed 64 percent of 15,590 first-time voters surveyed said they backed Biden.
In an opinion piece for Puck, political journalist Peter Hamby characterized Harris' performance among young voters in the election as an "abject disaster" and a "troubling omen" for the Democratic Party's political future.
Hamby added that the vice president failed to appeal to younger voters in several key states on the leading election issue of the economy, resulting in them believing Trump could "probably help their pocketbooks, whatever his flaws."
"The energy I saw out there in flyover country simply didn't match what the Harris campaign was selling relentlessly on TikTok and other channels, where Harris and the Democrats were straining to seem cool," Hamby wrote.
"There was Tim Walz, pretending to know more about football than he probably did. There were the Swifties for Kamala. The Chappell Roan-inspired Harris-Walz hats. AOC [Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez] showing up on Twitch. There was the avalanche of remixes and clips dunking on JD Vance. Ever since Harris became the nominee, Democrats were hoping they could coast on good vibes. But vibes aren't going to pay for that car loan."
Harris is expected to concede defeat to Trump during a speech at Howard University in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday afternoon.
Update 11/08/2024, 03:14 a.m. ET: This article has been updated with comment from David B. Cohen, a professor of political science at the University of Akron.
